Monthly Economic Monitor Ukraine, 2006

Українська

No. 74
December, 2006

• Three more 'orange' ministers were dismissed by the Parliament.

• Real economic growth accelerates to 6.5% yoy in the first ten months of the year.

• Government resorts to administrative measures to contain prices.

• In November and early December the Parliament passed 15 of 20 remaining laws needed for the completion of WTO accession process.

• The central fiscal revenues and expenditures for 2006 were revised upwards by UAH 1.7 bn thanks to higher VAT revenues.

• In November inflation moved up to 11.6% yoy.

• Branches of foreign banks will be allowed in Ukraine following its WTO accession.

The full version of the Monitor (75Kb)

MEMU Supplement: WTO accession: three steps to the end of talks (29Kb)

No. 73
November, 2006

• "Our Ukraine" political block moves into opposition.

• Real economic growth accelerates to 6.2% yoy in the first nine months of the year.

• Imported gas price is set at USD 130 per thousand cubic meters at the border in 2007.

• Commodity exports grew 7.9% yoy between January and August, continuing accelerating.

• The Draft State Budget 2007 was approved by Verkhovna Rada in the first reading.

• In October inflation jumped to 11.0% yoy.

• The NBU accumulated USD 19.5 bn of foreign reserves as of the end of October.

The full version of the Monitor (89Kb)

MEMU Supplement: What are the economic costs of recent grain export restrictions? (28Kb)

No. 72
October, 2006

• The Cabinet of Ministers and the Secretariat of the President engaged in procedural squabbles.

• In the first eight months of 2006 real GDP increased by 5.7% yoy.

• Import gas price remains unchanged in last quarter of 2006.

• Current account deficit improved to 1.9% of GDP in the first half of the year.

• The draft State Budget 2007 foresees central fiscal deficit at 2.6% of GDP.

• In September inflation jumped to 9.1% yoy.

• The NBU continued policies aimed at boosting national currency deposits.

The full version of the Monitor (76Kb)

MEMU Supplement: President versus Prime Minister: defining foreign policy priorities (69Kb)

No. 71
September, 2006

• In August the Parliament elected Victor Yanukovytch, the leader of the Party of Regions, as the Prime Minister.

• In the first seven months of the year real GDP growth was 5.5% yoy thanks to growth in industry and services.

• The Prime Minister signed a Memorandum of cooperation with representatives of refineries and oil products traders.

• In the first half of the year the commodity trade balance remained negative at USD 2.92 bn.

• Between January and July the central fiscal deficit reached UAH 6.3 bn or 2.5% of GDP.

• Wage arrears reached UAH 1.1 bn by August 1, 2006.

• Inflation remained at 7.4% yoy in August.

The full version of the Monitor (128Kb)

MEMU Supplement: The political crisis has been finally resolved in August (74Kb)

No. 70
August, 2006

• Oleksandr Moroz, the leader of the Socialist Party of Ukraine, was elected as a Speaker of the Parliament.

• In the first half of 2006 real GDP increased by 5.0% yoy.

• In July 2006 new marginal tariffs plan for telecommunication services were approved.

• In May commodity exports grew by 11.4% yoy after six months of continuous decline.

• From January to June central fiscal deficit reached 2.5% of GDP.

• Consumer prices inflation accelerated to 7.4 % yoy in July.

• Accounts of state-owned enterprises will be transferred to state banks, primarily the State Oschadny Bank.

The full version of the Monitor (90Kb)

MEMU Supplement: Economic growth in 2006: risks that did not materialised (29Kb)

No. 69
July, 2006

• In June there was a first attempt to create a parliament coalition.

• In the first five months the growth of real GDP reached 4.0% yoy.

• The imported gas prices in July-September 2006 will remain at USD 95 per thousands cubic meters at the border.

• In the first quarter of 2006 the current account was in deficit at USD 0.7 bn.

• In June Ukraine continued the process of the WTO accession.

• Between January and May 2006 the central fiscal deficit reached 0.9% of GDP.

• Around 1.7% of households received utility and housing subsidies during first five months of 2006.

• The CPI growth decelerated to 6.8% yoy in June.

The full version of the Monitor (81Kb)

MEMU Supplement: New Challenges for Economic Policy in Ukraine: Proposals for Immediate Action (37Kb)

No. 68
June, 2006

• The first session of newly elected Parliament has started on May 25, two months after an election in March.

• In the first four month real GDP increased by 2.7% yoy thanks to growing services and agriculture.

• The Cabinet of Ministers has approved a 50% increase in tariffs for domestic railway passenger transportation.

• Within the WTO membership negotiations framework Ukraine signed a protocol on access to markets of goods and services with Australia.

• The merchandize trade deficit reached USD 1.8 bn in the first quarter because of dropping exports and surging imports.

• In April real wages grew by 24.9% yoy

• Despite increase in tariffs on gas and electricity, the CPI growth decelerated to 7.3% yoy in May.

• Small banks are struggling to meet capital requirements.

The full version of the Monitor (86Kb)

MEMU Supplement: Public utilities tariffs rise: first response to new challenges (30Kb)

No. 67
May, 2006

• The results of Mach parliamentary elections have been officially announced on April 27.

• In the first quarter real GDP increased by 2.4% yoy despite the continued decline in manufacturing.

• The 2006 gain harvest in Ukraine is forecast to be 31 m tons, thus 6.0 m tons below the previous year.

• The commodity trade deficit reached USD 1.03 bn in the first two months of the year.

• Central fiscal deficit reached 1.7% of GDP in the first quarter of 2006.

• In February household real incomes increased by 20.9% yoy.

• In March consumer price growth decelerated to 8.6% yoy.

• The NBU lost around USD 2 bn of foreign reserves in the first quarter primarily due to increased demand for cash dollars.

The full version of the Monitor (93Kb)

MEMU Supplement: Deceleration of economic growth in 2005: what statistics tell us (25Kb)

No. 66
April, 2006

• On March 26 Ukrainians elected new Parliament.

• From January to February 2006, real GDP grew by 1.5% yoy.

• The National Electricity Regulatory Commission announced about gas and electricity tariff increases.

• Ukraine completed WTO membership negotiations with the USA.

• In January and February the central fiscal expenditures are executed at 85% of target.

• The Pension Fund deficit is planned at UAH 7.3 bn in 2006.

• In February inflation speeded up to 10.7% yoy.

The full version of the Monitor (88Kb)

MEMU Supplement: Parliament elections 2006 (26Kb)

No. 65
March, 2006

• The USA has granted Ukraine the market economy status.

• In January 2006 the real GDP grew by mere 0.9% yoy.

• Naftogaz Ukrainy and RosUkrEnergo created a joint venture UkrGasEnergo.

• The negative balance of commodity trade reached USD 1.85 bn in 2005.

• Slowdown of economic activity was reflected in shortfall of enterprise profit tax revenues.

• Consumer price growth slightly decelerated to 9.8% yoy in January 2006.

The full version of the Monitor (88Kb)

MEMU Supplement: Ukraine's dairy industry lost access to its largest export market (33Kb)

No. 64
February, 2006

• Based on the critique of the gas conflict with Russia the Parliament dismissed the Cabinet of Ministers.

• In 2005 real GDP grew by modest 2.4%.

• Gas price for Ukrainian industrial consumers went up to approximately USD 100 per thousand cubic meters.

• The USA restored Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) benefits for Ukraine that were suspended in August 2001.

• For the year 2005, the central fiscal deficit reached UAH 7.9 bn that is below 2% of GDP.

• In 2005 Pension Fund deficit amounted UAH 16.3 bn (4% of GDP).

• The consumer prices increased by 10.3% yoy in 2005.

• In 2005 commercial banks earned profits at UAH 2.4 bn, which is 90% higher than in 2004.

The full version of the Monitor (90Kb)

MEMU Supplement: Gas dispute: temporary truce (30Kb)

No. 63
January, 2006

• In December the EU granted market economy status to Ukraine.

• Between January and November real GDP grew by 2.2% yoy, further decelerating compared with previous periods.

• The National Electricity Regulation Commission increased electricity and gas tariffs for households.

• Current account balance reached USD 2.1 bn, or 3.7% of GDP in the first nine months of 2005.

• The approved State Budget Law for 2006 foresees the central fiscal deficit for 2006 at 2.5% of GDP.

• In November foreign reserves reached USD 19.5 bn after Mittal Steel Germany paid for Kryvorizhstal.

• The state debt decreased to USD 15.9 bn as a result of redemption of inflation-indexed domestic government bonds (POVDP).

The full version of the Monitor (87Kb)

MEMU Supplement: The Parliament has adopted the State budget for 2006 (29Kb)

Monthly Economic Monitor Ukraine:

2005 / 2004 / 2003 / 2002 / 2001 / 2000