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December, 2008

New issue Monthly Economic Monitor Ukraine.
MEMU Supplement: Global financial crisis: impact on Ukraine?s banking sector

Monthly Economic Monitor Ukraine No. 98

On December 1, 2008 the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting will hold the Round Table titled ?Coping with Effects of International Financial Crisis: Searching for Proper Policy Response?. Under the circumstances of Ukraine having been already affected by the world financial crisis and sharp unfavourable conjuncture changes on key export markets, there is a vital need to identify proper national measures and instruments to minimize negative economic impacts of the crisis.
The Diplomatic Academy of Ukraine, the National Committee of the International Chamber of Commerce, and the UNDP Blue Ribbon Analytical and Advisory Centre are co-organisers of this event.
The Round table will be held in the Academic Council Hall of the Diplomatic Academy of Ukraine, Kyiv, Velyka Zhytomyrska str. 2, from 14:00 till 17:30.

November, 2008

Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine

A new issue of Macroeconomic Forecast for Ukraine with basic and risky scenarios of economic development for the end of 2008 and for 2009 has been published. The Forecast contains the estimates of the GDP, state budget, balance of payments, inflation and exchange rate.
To subscribe to Macroeconomic Forecast for Ukraine please contact Alina Dolya,

Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine

October 23, 2008

NJSC Naftogaz of Ukraine on the gas market

On October 22, 2008 the round table NJSC ?Naftogaz of Ukraine? on the Gas Market: Corporate Management, Financial Results and General Economic Context took place. The event was organized by the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting, University of Antwerp and Diplomatic Academy of the MFA of Ukraine.
Among the participants of the round table were representatives of NJSC Naftogaz of Ukraine, ?abinet of Ministers of Ukraine, investment and financial companies, leading international and domestic experts, mass media.
During the discussion their studies presented Andriy Kobolyev, Advisor to the CEO, NJSC Naftogaz of Ukraine, Yuriy Vitrenko, Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, Amstar Europe, Oleksandr Kovalko, advisor to the Prime-Minister, Andriy Boytsun, researcher University of Antwerp, Ferdinand Pavel, expert German Advisory Group, Michael Gonchar, Director Energy Programs Nomos Centre, Volodymyr Saprykin, Director Energy programs and Vasyl Yurchyshyn, Director Economic programs Ukraine Centre for Economic and Political Studies named after Olexander Razumkov. The round table was chaired by Igor Burakovsky, Director of the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting.

July, 2008

Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine No. 13

Ukrainian-German conference ?Ukraine on the Way to Europe ? Challenges and Opportunities for Agro Food Sector?

On June 11, 2008 at 09:00 (President Hotel, 12 Hospitalna Str., Kyiv) the Ukrainian-German conference ?Ukraine on the Way to Europe ? Challenges and Opportunities for Agro Food Sector? will take place. Among the key speakers are Yuriy Melnyk, Minister of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine; Valeriy Piatnytskiy, Fist Deputy Minister of Economy of Ukraine; Horst Seehofer, German Federal Minister of Food, Agriculture and Consumer Protection. The participants of the conference are Ukrainian and German officials, expert?s representatives of domestic and foreign enterprises, ministries and departments.
Forum Program

27 March, 2008

?100 Days of the Ukrainian Government in the new format: performance assessment within the context of adherence by democratic values?

On March 27, 2008 Consortium of Non-Governmental Analytical Centers, which include the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting, Ukrainian Center named after Olexander Razumkov, Center for Political and Legal Reform held a public hearing ?100 Days of the Ukrainian Government in the new format: performance assessment within the context of adherence by democratic values?.
Consortium prepared analytical materials ?100 Days of the Ukrainian Government in the new format: performance assessment within the context of adherence by democratic values?. The report contains the analysis of the activity of the Government and other state institutions of Ukraine from the viewpoint of its correspondents the principles of democratic governance. Also the report presents results of public opinion surveys for the first term of the Government activity as well as conclusions and recommendation of experts.

12 March, 2008

Analyse of technical efficiency of energy-distributive companies in Ukraine

Inna Yuzefovych, Research Associate at the Institute of Economic Research and Policy Consulting, at the Institute's internal seminar presented her study ?Analyse of technical efficiency of energy-distributive companies in Ukraine?. The DEA method has been used in the research, The results of the analysis show the significant differences in efficiency of companies which cased by to structure of ownership and time privatization of the company.

Analyse of technical efficiency of energy-distributive companies in Ukraine

21 January 2008

?New horizons for financial markets- Investing in a Changing World?

16-18 of January Alla Kobylyanska, research associate of the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting, participated in the annual international research conference and business forum ?New horizons for financial markets- Investing in a Changing World? which was held in Vallendar, Germany. During the conference and forum participants discussed main modern challenges to international and local financial markets.
The event was organized by WHU- Otto Beisheim School of Management in cooperation with top-business organizations (BCG, Delloite, Merill Linch, Rotchild etc.).

20 December 2007

Tax Revenue Outlook for Ukraine ?6

New issue Tax Revenue Outlook for Ukraine.

• The revenues from enterprise profits tax are estimated by UAH 2.9 bn above the official plan in 2007, totaling UAH 31.8 bn.

• The revenues from value added tax grow thanks to higher private consumption and imports, and will reach UAH 64.5 bn in 2007.

• The revenues from personal income tax in 2007 are expected to reach UAH 35.5 bn that is UAH 3.0 bn higher than official plan.

Tax Revenue Outlook for Ukraine

27 November, 2007

A legitimate reaction to new threats or inertia of the Cold War

On the 27 th of November Yevgeniy Razdorozhny, a research associate at the Institute of Economic Research and Policy Consulting, presented his study entitled ?The deployment of the US ABM system elements in Central Europe: the consequences for strategic stability?. The object of the presented study is the analysis of the factors inciting the United States to deploy in Europe the elements of the national ABM system and of the consequences of such a deployment for strategic stability in Europe and in the world. In his study the expert analyzes the main reasons for creating the US national ABM system and for its extension to Europe, the possible reaction of Russia as well as contradictions among European countries. The study also contains the assessment of eventual consequences for Ukraine of the American initiative to deploy the ABM system elements in Central Europe.

November 14, 2007

Soft and Hard power in the 21 st century

On November 13, an internal seminar at the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting took place, where Kateryna Shynkaruk, Research Associate of the Institute's Center for Political Studies presented her study on topic "International Leadership in the 21st Century: the Role of Soft Power". During the presentation Ms. Shynkaruk provided with definition of soft and hard power / She described the key difference between soft and hard power as well as the main constituents of the both.. Also the presentation contained case studies on the US and the EU approaches to foreign policy, analysing to what extent the US and the EU rely on soft and hard power and what is the difference in their approaches to using both types of power.

Soft and Hard power in the 21 st century

15 October, 2007

?Ukraine?s Pre-Term Parliamentary Elections: Observer?s Remarks?

Aleksandra Duda, research associate of the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting, was an OSCE/ODIHR short-term observer during the pre-term parliamentary elections on 30 September 2007. Her team covered 14 polling stations on election day appointed by the District Election Commission nr 41 in the City of Donetsk.

?Ukraine?s Pre-Term Parliamentary Elections: Observer?s Remarks?

2 October, 2007

?National Development Plan ? a new approach to Moldova?s development?

In September 28, Dmytro Naumenko, research associate of the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting, took part in International conference ?National Development Plan ? a new approach to Moldova?s development?, which was held in Chisinau, Moldova. The event was organized by the independent analytical center Expert Group in cooperation with the Ministry of Economy and Trade of the Republic of Moldova and financial support by a number of foreign NGOs. The conference aim was the discussion of the main Moldova?s strategic document draft ? National Development Plan, developed by the Ministry of Economy and Trade of the Republic of Moldova.
Dmytro Naumenko presented the Ukraine?s experience in field of strategic documents development in address on

?Strategic planning in Ukraine: experience and lessons?.

26-27 September, 200

?Fuel and Energy sector of Ukraine: Present and Future?

?n September 26-27, 2007 Oleh Krykavskyy, Research Associate of Institute of Economic Research and Policy Consulting, participated in V International Forum ?Fuel and Energy sector of Ukraine: Present and Future?. Forum was held in venue of International Exhibition Center, Kyiv. Forum was dedicated mainly to such issues as regulatory climate in power sector, perspectives of domestic nuclear industry, ecological impact of energy. Forum participants also discussed conception of renewable energy in Ukraine, effectiveness of coal industry, development program of transmission grids and distribution networks (04-110 kV), problems of technical diagnostic in sector.

Program Forum

17 September, 2007

Ukrainian exports

Evghenia Sleptsova, Research Associates of Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting, presented report ?Gravity analysis of the determinants of Ukrainian exports: The role of Regional Trade Agreements?.
The research explores the following issues: how internal or external trade blocs affect the country?s export performance, whether belonging to the trade bloc improves export performance and whether being excluded from a trade bloc can exert a trade diverting effect. To address these issues a gravity model is employed. Some of the main conclusions of the paper state that neighbor effect significantly increases trade, but less than (internal) trade blocs do; distance indeed looks as a biggest natural barrier to trade; and one of the main exports in Ukraine, steel, substantially undersells to the EU and CEFTA. Structural reasons are the main obstacles for CEFTA, while policy imposed barriers are more important for the EU.

Presentation

17 September, 2007

International Conference in Prague

In September 13-14, Kateryna Kutsenko and Nataliya Sysenko, Research Associates of Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting, took part in International Conference ?The World of Work and Quality of Life in the Globalized Economy?, which was held in Prague.
Kateryna Kutsenko presented report ?Portolio theory in strategic management Ukrainian dairy enterprises? and Nataliya Sysenko presentation ?ICT ? based innovations in transport?.
This event was organized by University of Economics in Prague.

10 September, 2007

Economic reforms in Ukraine

On September 10, Igor Burakovsky, Head of the Bored of Directors of the IER and Oksana Kuzaikiv, Chief Executive of the IER participated in meeting of the Socialist International Committee on the Economy, Social Cohesion and the Environment. They benefit to discussion dedicated to economic development and reforms in Ukraine. For details see

http://www.socialistinternational.org/6Meetings/Economy/Sept07/Kiev-e.html#1

5 September, 2007

?Economic Assessment of Ukraine 2007?

?n September 4, 2007 Organization for economic co-operation and development (OECD) and Ministry of economy of Ukraine presented ?Economic Assessment of Ukraine 2007?. The report was prepared by the OECD upon the request of the Government of Ukraine. Experts of the Institute of economic research and policy consulting have participated in the preparation of the report. In particular, Oksana Kuzyakiv, Chief Executive of the Institute, assisted with the conduct of the review of product-market regulation. A central theme of the report is improving the climate for business through more effective and transparent regulation. OECD delegation headed by Val Koromzay, Director of Country Studies Branch of the OECD Economic department presented review of the reforms needed to sustain strong, innovation-led growth in Ukraine. Head of the Board of Directors of the Institute Igor Burakovsky and Chief Executive of the Institute Oksana Kuziakiv have participated in the event.

For details of the ?Economic Assessment of Ukraine 2007? please visit OECD website.

September, 3

European Forum Alpbach

From August, 16 till September,1 Oleh Krykavskyy, Andriy Prokhorov and Kateryna Shynkaruk, Research Associates of the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting, participated in the 63rd European Forum Alpbach (Austria). This year Forum was dedicated to the theme of Emergence and the new challenges that Europe is facing today. The major events and discussions of Forum have focused on the new trends in world economy and politics.
The model of Europe?s future was discussed during the seminars ?Europe Old an New?? and ?Europe and the Emergence of New Centres of Power? as well as during the Political Symposium ?Europe as a Global Player? and Economic Symposium ?Never Again Full Employment? Perspective 2020?. There was the session ?Ukraine: Relationship with the European Union, market power and energy security?. It was dedicated to the issues of Ukrainian market development and European perspectives of Ukraine. The session?s participants had an opportunity to take the analytical papers of the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting.

Quarterly Enterprise Survey

Regular and special issues of Quarterly Enterprise Survey are on the website. In the survey the panel of 300 manufacturing enterprises is used to monitor their managers? assessments and expectations about the changes of the business climate and the performance of their firms.

Quarterly Enterprise Survey

June 18-22, 2007

Vth International Conference on Management and Engineering

In June 18-22 Natalia Sysenko, Leader of Group of Structural Reforms of the Institute, took part in the V-th International Scientific Conference on Management and Engineering, which was held in Sozopol, Bulgaria. The conference offered the opportunity to scientists and specialists meet together and present results of research in different areas of general management, and management of innovations in particular. This event was organized by the Federation of the Scientific and Technical Unions of Bulgaria, National Science-Technical Union on Management and Engineering, Faculty of Management of the Technical University ? Sofia. Natalia Sysenko presented paper ?Costs and Benefits of Intelligent Transportation System?.

15 June, 2007

Ukraine-EU: from the Action Plan to an Enhanced Agreement

In June 15, Igor Burakovsky, Director of the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting, took part in Round Table "Ukraine-EU: from the Action Plan to an Enhanced Agreement", which was held in Kiev. The goal of this event was to present the book "Ukraine-EU: from the Action Plan to an Enhanced Agreement", based upon the findings of the project "Public Monitoring of the EU-Ukraine Action Plan" implemented by the Expert Consortium including Igor Burakovsky and Veronika Movchan, Academic Director of the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting.
This event was organized by Ukrainian Centre for Economic and Political Studies named after Olexander Razumkov with the support from the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation and International Renaissance Foundation.

11-13 June 2007

Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic Future

In June 11-13, Igor Burakovsky, Director of the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting, took part in International Forum "Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic Future", which was held in Kiev. The goal of this event was to discuss various aspects of Ukraine's' cooperation with Euro-Atlantic community and the prospects of reforms necessary to implement internationally recognized political, social and economic standards.
Igor Burakovsky chaired the Forum Plenary Session III "Assessing Ukraine's Progress Toward Meeting "Economic Standards" of Euro-Atlantic Community" and presented keynote report (to be published in "Polityka i Chas" magazine).
This event was organized by Embassy of Ukraine to the United State, American Foreign Policy Council, Freedom House, Centre for US-Ukrainian Relations, Democratic Initiatives Foundation, Diplomatic Academy of Ukraine, Embassy of the Slovak Republic to Ukraine, Freedom House, International Renaissance Foundation, Konrad Adenauer Stiftung, National State Institute, NATO Information Centre/Ukraine, Polish-Ukrainian Cooperation Foundation PAUCI, Open World Program, The Atlantic Council of the United States, US-Ukraine Foundation..

keynote report

June 6, 2007

Ukraine in the Processes of International and Regional Integration: Problems of Elaboration of Strategy

In June 6, Igor Burakovsky, Director of the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting, Evgen Razdorozhnyi and Kateryna Schynkaruk, Researchers of the Institute, took part in International scientific conference "Ukraine in the Processes of International and Regional Integration: Problems of Elaboration of Strategy ", which was held in Kiev. The conference goal was to identify key political and economic elements of strategy of Ukraine in the context of current international and regional integration processes.
Igor Burakovsky presented report "International Integration: Challenges for Ukraine", while Evgen Razdorozhnyi (presentation "Comparative Analysis of EU-Russia and EU-Russia Relations") and Kateryna Schynkaruk (presentation "Ukraine - CIS: Alternative Strategies") participated in discussions. This event was organized by Diplomatic Academy of Ukraine under Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting and International Swedish Institute for Public Administration. The proceedings of the conference will be published in Ukrainian and English.

May, 2007

Tax Revenue Outlook for Ukraine No. 5

May 17, 2007

International Conference "Ukraine and Freedom of Enterprise"

In May 17, Igor Burakovsky, Director of the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting, took part in the IV-th Annual International Conference "Ukraine and Freedom of Enterprise", which was held in Kiev. The conference goal was to discuss the state of freedom of enterprise in Ukraine in the times when the country has again to make choice between freedom, European values and Eurasian respect towards force and neglecting human interests. This event was organized by the Institute for Competitive Society in partnership with Deutsche Gesellschaft f?r Technische Zusammenarb (GTZ, Germany), National Institute for Strategic Studies, Ukrainian Independent Center for Political Research, and Ukrainian Academy for European Integration.

?ay 7-8, 2007

International Conference in Berlin

In May 7-8 Igor Burakovsky, Director of the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting, took part in the conference "EU and Black Sea Regional Cooperation: Common goals, Common interests, Common strategies", which was held in Berlin. The conference goal was to critically reflect on the present needs and realistic options for enhanced regional cooperation in the Black Sea Region, to formulate policy recommendations how to make EU policies in the region more efficient when the during the ongoing German Presidency of the European Council. This event was organized by the German Suedosteuropa-Gesellschaft (Southeast Europe Association) in close cooperation with the German Federal Foreign Office, the German Federal Ministry for Economic Development and Cooperation, and the Stability Pact for South Eastern Europe.

Appeal of the civic Leaders - How to overcome the political crisis

On 23 April, 2007, the ?onsortium consisting of three leading Ukrainian think-tanks - the Ukrainian Centre for Economic and Political Studies named after Olexander Razumkov, the Centre for Political and Legal Reforms, and the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting - with support of the International Renaissance Foundation organized the meeting of opinion makers and leading independent experts of Ukraine to discuss the ways how to overcome current political crisis, which endangers the perspectives of the country.
Discussions resulted in writing Appeal, which was presented during press-conference at Interfax-Ukraine on 27 April, 2007

Appeal

April 25, 2007

Public Hearings: "240 Days of the Activities of Ukrainian Authorities in the New Format: Assessment of Non-Governmental Analytical Centers"

The consortium of non-governmental analytical centers consisting of the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting, Ukrainian Center for Economic and Political Studies named after Olexander Razumkov, Center for Political and Legal Reform with support of the International Renaissance Foundation organized the Public Hearings: "240 Days of the Activities of Ukrainian Authorities in the New Format: Assessment of Non-Governmental Analytical Centers".
Participants of discussion addressed a number of many important issues, in particular, different aspects of domestic and foreign policy, as well as the problems of social and economic development of the country.
Consortium prepared analytical materials "240 Days of the Activities of Ukrainian Authorities in the New Format: Assessment of Non-Governmental Analytical Centers" (for the moment available in Ukrainian only). These materials include analysis of the activities of the government in terms of its compatibility with the principles of democratic governance. The authors also analyzed factors that led to political crisis in Ukraine proposed the ways how to settle it, presented results of public opinion poll as well as conclusions and recommendations.

January 18, 2007

Credit Unions in Ukraine: Stability and Further Development

November 27, 2007

Draft Budget Law for 2008 becomes even more socially oriented

On November 21 the Government approved the updated Draft State Budget for 2008. The changes are mainly attributed to the revision of the forecast of key macroeconomic parameters, on which the budget is based. In particular, the forecast of nominal GDP was revised upwards by UAH 80 bn to UAH 890 bn, while the inflation of consumer prices is expected to be higher by 2.8 percentage points at 9.6%.

Expert's comment

November 16, 2007

What can be expected on Ukrainian air transportation market?

On October 25, 2007, the Antimonopoly Committee of Ukraine (AMCU) provided a permit for the CJSC AeroSvit Airline and the public company Donbasaero Airline to concert their activities within the ?Agreement on Strategic Alliance?.

Expert's comment

1 August, 2007

The decision of the Constitutional Court once more raised a question of the social welfare reform

On July 11, 2007, the Constitutional Court of Ukraine published its decision on the unconstitutionality of several provisions of the State Budget Law for 2007. This concerns the articles that (a) terminated privileges, compensations and guarantees to public sector employees and military servants related to discounted prices for housing, phone calls, utility services, etc., and (b) reduced one-time annual assistance payments defined in laws ?On the Status of war Veterans and Guarantees of Their Social Protection? and ?On Victims of Nazi Pursuit?.

Expert's comment

20 July, 2007

Early harvesting temporary boosted agricultural value added growth

According to the Derzhkomstat, during January-June, 2007 the real GDP growth did not change and was reported at 7.9% yoy. The key feature of the growth in June is a rapid acceleration in the growth of agricultural value added, which occurred after a slowdown in this sector that lasted several months.

Expert's comment

6 July, 2007

Comments on ?Main Principles of State Supervision (control) of Business Activities Law?

On June 13, 2007 the President has signed ?The Law on Main Principles of State Supervision (Control) of Business Activities?, which regulates relations between business entities and state controlling agencies. The adoption of the law is an important step towards the establishment of a clear system of state inspections.

Expert's comment

2 July, 2007

International Development Assistance - New Direction of Russia?s Foreign Policy

The Concept of the Russian Federation Participation in International Development Assistance (IDA) published by Russian MFA on June 25. The Concept declares the Russian Federation intentions to increase the amount of its participation in IDA up to USD 400?500 m per year within the next few years. The final goal set in the document is to assign for the IDA no less then 0,7% of gross national product, as recommended by the UN.

Expert's comment

27 June, 2007

Bread price

On the beginning of June bread prices in several Ukrainian regions increased by 5-30%. Government claimed that economic reasons for price increases are absent and used administrative methods to return prices to the previous levels.

Expert's comment

27 June, 2007

Steel Product Quotas Increased

On June 18th Ukraine and the European Union (EU) signed an agreement ?On administering certain restrictions on imports of certain steel products from Ukraine?.

Expert's comment

26 June, 2007

The European Union: an unexpected break of the institutional deadlock

Despite foretelling a sensational failure, the final European Council meeting held under the German presidency has been concluded with an unexpected compromise. After having buried the project of the European constitution which hadn?t been supported by the French and the Dutch people in referendums in 2005, last Saturday the EU leaders came to an agreement as to the contours of the future institutional framework of the EU called on to increase its effectiveness and democratic legitimacy as well as to improve the coordination of its common foreign policy.

Expert's comment

20 June, 2007

GUAM: Great Expectations

Summit of the Organization for Democracy and Economic Development -GUAM Took Place in Baku on June 18-19.
The Summit is actually the second meeting of the Council of Heads of Member-States after GUAM has acquired the status of international regional organization (during Kyiv Summit in May, 2006). Its purpose was to specify the content of GUAM?s activity in economic and security areas and intensify sectoral cooperation.

Expert's comment

19 June, 2007

Pre-election agreements

On June 19, 2007, Prime Minister V. Yanukovich addressed the Verkhovna Rada with a statement, where he thanked MPs for ?efficient cooperation?. This statement may have several interpretations. On the one hand, it could be regarded as a message that the government had admitted the work of the Parliament of the fifth convocation completed.

Expert's comment

18 June, 2007

Unofficial payments in Ukraine economy

According to the survey of the managers of industrial enterprises ?Business tendency surveys? conducted by the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting the level of corruption in Ukraine continues to increase.

Expert's comment

18 June, 2007

Ukraine-EU: agreements on the facilitation of the issuance of visas and on the readmission of persons finally signed

One of the key issues on the agenda of the 11-th regular meeting of the EU-Ukraine Cooperation Council which took place on June 18, 2007 in Luxemburg was the signing of the agreements on the facilitation of the issuance of visas to the citizens of Ukraine and on the readmission of persons.

Expert's comment

16 June, 2007

Pitfalls for the forthcoming re-elections

On June 16, 2007, Kyiv Administrative Court of Appeal refused the Party of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs in claim regarding a decision by Pechersk Court of May 11, thus admitting its legality. The decision cancels the Act of the Central Electoral Commission that prohibited the ?Our Ukraine? Block to nullify its electoral list for the elections of May 26, 2006. It also obliges the Central Electoral Commission to re-consider the nullification of ?Our Ukraine? Block?s electoral list and approve a decision according to the current legislation.

Expert's comment

June 14, 2007

Will through transportation rates be implemented?

Ukraine's positions in the Euro-Asian transport chain can weaken because of slow reforms in its transport sector and insufficient implementation of joint projects on facilitation of goods transit through its territory.

Expert's comment